Umgca ophambili weebhasi zombane zaseTshayina ngo-2026 ngulo: imakethi iya kutshintsha ukusuka kwinkxaso-mali eqhutywa yi-TCO, iibhetri ze-800V eziphezulu kunye nezobomi obude ziya kuba zezomgangatho, uyilo lokhuseleko olukrelekrele luya kuphunyezwa, ukwenziwa ngokwezifiso okusekwe kwimeko ethile kuya kuqhuma, ukutshintshana kweebhetri kunye nokuthengiswa kwe-V2G kuya kukhuthazwa, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okuphezulu kuya kwenziwa, kwaye ulawulo lobushushu luya kuphuculwa ngokupheleleyo. Ngezantsi ziindlela ezenzekayo ngoku kwaye zingasetyenziswa ngo-2026, zahlulwe ngokwemodyuli.
1, Ipateni yeMarike: ukunyuka okuncinci komthamo opheleleyo, utshintsho olukhulu kwisakhiwo, ulawulo lweTCO
Intengiso kunye nobukhulu: Kulindeleke ukuba kubekho iibhasi ezintsha zamandla ezingama-82000 ezinobude obungaphezulu kweemitha ezi-6 ngo-2026 (+3.5%), ezinobukhulu bemarike obuyi-48-55 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi; Umbane ococekileyo ungaphezulu kwe-92%, kwaye izinga lokungena kwezothutho lukawonke-wonke lisondele kwi-100%.
Utshintsho lwenjini yokukhula: Valelisa ukuxhomekeka kwinkxaso-mali, * * I-TCO yeminyaka emi-5 iphantsi ngama-25% -35% kuneemoto zedizili * * iba yeyona nto iphambili yokuthengisa; Umahluko wamaxabiso phakathi kweoyile nombane, ukugcinwa okuphantsi, ixabiso eliseleyo leebhetri, kunye neenzuzo zekhabhoni zenza umjikelo ovaliweyo.
Ukwahluka kolwakhiwo:
Uthutho olukhulu lukawonke-wonke (iimitha ezili-10-12): ukutshintshwa kwempahla ekhoyo yeyona ndlela iphambili, enesantya sokukhula esicothayo.
Phakathi (iimitha ezisi-8-10) kunye nokukhanya (iimitha ezisi-6-8): ukukhula okukhulu (okuyi-39.6%), kugxilwe ekuthuthweni kwabakhweli ezidolophini nasemaphandleni, izithuthi zokhenketho, ukuhamba ngeenyawo okwenziwe ngokwezifiso, kunye neenkonzo zokuhamba ngeenqwelo-moya/zeepaki.
Ukuphuculwa kokugxila: IYutong, BYD, kunye neCRRC Electric zinesabelo semarike esingaphezulu kwe-70%, kwaye amashishini amancinci naphakathi eemoto ayakhawulezisa ukususwa kwazo.
2, iteknoloji yebhetri: Ixesha elide lokuphila, ukhuseleko oluphezulu, imeko eqinileyo yokusetyenziswa ebhodini
Uqwalaselo oluqhelekileyo lwezixhobo ze-elektroniki zeemoto ezinobomi obufanayo: umgangatho oqhelekileyo uquka i-lithium iron phosphate (LFP) yeminyaka eli-15/1.5 yezigidi zeekhilomitha, enobomi obufanayo nemoto yonke, ayinabhetri yokutshintsha ubomi, kwaye i-TCO yenziwe ngcono kakhulu.
Ukwanda koxinano lwamandla:
Iimodeli zexabiso eliphezulu: Iibhetri ezisemgangathweni ophantsi zifakelwa kwiibhetshi ezincinci, ezinobunzima bamandla obuyi-180-220Wh/kg kunye nomgama ongama-500-600km.
Uhlobo lokwazisa abantu: I-LFP iphuculwe ukuya kwi-160Wh/kg, kunye nomgama oqhelekileyo we-400-450km kwiibhasi ezili-12 leemitha.
Imigangatho yokhuseleko eqinileyo iphunyeziwe: akukho bhetri isasazwayo kubushushu, ulawulo lobushushu lwehlabathi, isilumkiso esinyanzelekileyo sokubaleka kobushushu be-AI; Ukubaleka kweseli enye akusabalali kwaye kuyahlangabezana nemigangatho engqongqo yesizwe.
Ukuncitshiswa kweendleko: Ixabiso eliqhelekileyo leepakethe zebhetri ze-LFP yi-≤ 550 yuan/kWh, kwaye ixabiso lokuthenga lincitshisiwe libe ngaphakathi kwe-1.3 yeendleko zeemoto zedizili.
3, Inkqubo yokuzalisa amandla: isekelwe kakhulu ekutshajeni ngokukhawuleza kwe-800V, ukutshintshana kwebhetri enkulu, i-V2G pilot
Iqonga le-800V eliphezulu le-voltage liba yinto ephambili:
Ngowama-2026, umlinganiselo weemodeli ezintsha zezithuthi ezine-800V uza kuba yi-≥ 60%, kwaye amandla okutshaja aza kuba yi-350-500kW.
Itshaja ukuya kuma-80% kwimizuzu eli-10, iphinda izalise amandla kwi-300km, ihambelana nokusebenza ngamandla aphezulu.
**Isifudumezi sefilimu esinombane ophezulu (HVCH)* * ithatha indawo ye-PTC ngokupheleleyo, ngokusebenza kakuhle ≥ 95%, impendulo
Izikhululo zokutshintsha iibhetri ezingaphezu kwe-1800, ezigubungela i-85% yezixeko ezikumgangatho wesithili; imizuzu emi-3-5 yokutshintshwa kweebhetri, isebenza kakuhle kunezithuthi zepetroli.
Ukugxila kwimigca emikhulu esetyenziswa rhoqo, ukuthuthwa kwabakhweli basezidolophini nasemaphandleni, izikhululo zeenqwelo-moya/iipaki; Ukwahlulwa kombane kweemoto zeBaaS kunciphisa umda wokuthenga iimoto (nge-30% -40%).
Uvavanyo lokuthengisa lwe-V2G: Izixeko ezili-10 eziquka iBeijing, iShanghai, iGuangzhou, kunye neShenzhen ziza kuqhuba iibhasi zombane njengendawo yokugcina amandla ehambayo ukuze zithathe inxaxheba ekuchebeni igridi, kunye nokunyuka konyaka kwe-20000 ukuya kwi-30000 yuan ngesithuthi ngasinye.
Ukusasazwa kweendawo zokugcina kunye nokutshaja ezidityanisiweyo ze-photovoltaic: i-photovoltaic+ugcino lwamandla+ukutshaja ngokukhawuleza, ukunciphisa iindleko zokutshaja nge-20% -30%, kunye nokunciphisa uxinzelelo kwigridi yamandla.
4, Intelligence: Ukhuseleko kuqala, uqwalaselo oluqhelekileyo lwe-L2 +, ukuqhuba kabini kunye nolawulo oluphindwe kabini
Ukuphuculwa koyilo lokhuseleko: ukuqhuba kabini kunye nolawulo kabini (okukhuthazwa kakhulu yiYutong):
Iqhutywa ngomatshini, ijongiwe ngumntu, ikwi-intanethi ngokupheleleyo, ayisoze iyeke; Umqhubi kufuneka athathe inyathelo kuqala ukuze aphephe umngcipheko "wokungenelela okungxamisekileyo emva kokungaphumeleli".
Ukuqinisekiswa kwezigidi zeekhilomitha eziqokelelweyo, okuqhelekileyo kwiimodeli ezintsha ngo-2026.
Uqwalaselo olupheleleyo lwenqanaba le-L2: izinga lokuhlanganisa * * ≥ 65%, kubandakanya i-ACC, i-AEB, ukugcinwa kwendlela, ukujonga umqhubi we-DMS, umbono ojikelezileyo we-360 ° * *.
Ukufika kwindawo yesiganeko i-L3/L4: i-BRT yepaki evaliweyo, Ukusebenza kweebhasi zeenqwelo moya zorhwebo; Umqhubi wenqwelo moya i-L3 wothutho lwabakhweli oluphambili, kunye nokuqhuba ngoomatshini babantu njengendlela ephambili, uchasene nokuba i-L5 ayinabantu kwaphela.
Ukuhlanganiswa kwefu lezithuthi: Ulawulo lweenqwelo-moya ze-AI, ukujonga ngexesha langempela, ukugcinwa kwangaphambili, ukulungiswa kwamandla, ucwangciso olukrelekrele, ukuphuculwa kokusebenza kakuhle kwe-15% -20%.
5,Ulawulo lwezithuthi kunye nobushushu: ilula, idibeneyo, inamandla aphezulu ombane
Ubunzima: Ukusetyenziswa okukhulu kwe-aluminium alloy, i-carbon fiber, kunye nentsimbi enamandla aphezulu, kunciphisa ubunzima nge-10% -25% kunye nokusetyenziswa kwamandla nge-8% -15%; ubunzima be-curb yeemitha ezili-12 * * ≤ iitoni ezili-12 * *.
Ukuhlanganiswa kwe-voltage ephezulu: ukuphuculwa okubanzi ukusuka kwi-400V ukuya kwi-800V, kubandakanya ulawulo lweemoto kunye ne-elektroniki DC/DC 、 Ukuhlanganiswa kokusasazwa kwe-voltage ephezulu kunciphisa ivolumu nge-30% kwaye kwandisa ukusebenza kakuhle nge-5% -8%.
Inguqu yoLawulo loBushushu (Isitshixo):
Ukuhlanganiswa kwezinto ezine kwinto enye: ibhetri + i-motor + ulawulo lwe-elektroniki + ulawulo lobushushu bekhabhini, ukubuyiswa kobushushu obudibeneyo, ukufudumeza kwangaphambili ngobushushu obuphantsi, kunye nokusasazwa kobushushu obuphezulu.
Ukufudumeza ifilimu enombane ophezulu we-HVCH: okuqhelekileyo kwiqonga le-800V, kuthatha indawo ye-PTC yendabuko, ngokusebenza kakuhle kwe-≥ 95%, ubomi obude, impendulo ekhawulezayo, kunye nokunciphisa kwe-10% -15% ekusebenziseni amandla kubushushu obuphantsi.
Ukupholisa nokufudumeza ngokuthe ngqo kwebhetri: ukuchaneka kolawulo lobushushu * * ± 1 ℃, ubomi bomda buyandiswa yi-20% * *.
6, Isekelwe kwiMeko: Ukusuka ngokubanzi ukuya kwizinto ezikhethekileyo, ezihlukaniswe ngokwezigaba neziqhumayo
Uthutho lwabakhweli basezidolophini nasemaphandleni: Izithuthi ezilula eziziimitha ezi-6-8 ezinexabiso eliphezulu, zibaleka umgama omde, ziyakwazi ukunyuka intaba ngamandla, zidibanisa "imayile yokugqibela".
Ibhasi yabakhenkethi: Iimitha ezisi-8-12, umthamo webhetri ophezulu (400-500kWh), umgama omde (500km nangaphezulu), intuthuzelo ephezulu (ukumiswa komoya, ithule).
Isithuthi sokuhamba/senkampani esenzelwe wena: ukhuseleko oluphezulu, ukusetyenziswa kwamandla aphantsi, ucwangciso olukrelekrele, kugxilwe kwi-TCO efanelekileyo.
Isithuthi seenqwelo-moya/ipaki/indawo entle: Iimitha ezi-6-8, ukujika okuphezulu, indawo ephambili yokutshintsha ibhetri, i-L2+ekrelekrele.
7, Thumela ngaphandle: Ukusuka kwivolumu exabiso liphantsi ukuya kwimveliso yophawu oluphezulu
Ukukhula okuphezulu kokuthunyelwa kwezithuthi kwamanye amazwe: Kulindeleke ukuba ithumele ngaphandle izithuthi ezingama-20000 (+15%) ngo-2026, nto leyo ethetha ukuba ithengise ngaphezu kwe-25% iyonke.
Ulwakhiwo lwemarike:
IYurophu: Ibhasi/ibhasi yohambo enobude obuphezulu obuziimitha ezili-12, i-800V, ikhuselekile kakhulu, ikrelekrele, ixabiso leyunithi liqala kwi-300000 ukuya kwi-500000 yee-euro.
Umzantsi-mpuma we-Asia/uMbindi Mpuma/uMzantsi Merika: iimodeli ezingabizi kakhulu, ezi-6-10 zeemitha ze-LFP 、 Ixesha elide lokuphila.
Ukuphuculwa kwendlela: ukusuka ekuthunyelweni kwezithuthi ngaphandle → ukwakhiwa kwefektri ye-KD → imveliso yetekhnoloji → ukusebenza kophawu; iYutong kunye ne-BYD ziye zaba ziimpawu zehlabathi.
8, Imigaqo-nkqubo nemigangatho: Imigangatho yokhuseleko eqinileyo, ukunzulu kwekhabhoni ezimbini, kunye nokurisayikilisha okuvaliweyo
Imigangatho yokhuseleko yesizwe enyanzelekileyo: isilumkiso sokubaleka kobushushu bebhetri, ucinezelo lokusasazeka kobushushu, ukhuseleko oluyimfuneko oluyimfuneko; Imigangatho engqongqo yehlabathi yokuthintela umlilo, ukuqhuma, kunye nokuvuza kwezithuthi.
Ukuqhuba ikhabhoni ezimbini: umgomo wezinga lokufakelwa kombane eliyi-100% kwezothutho lukawonke-wonke; Urhwebo lwekhabhoni kunye nezaphulelo zombane oluhlaza kuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kwezoqoqosho.
Ukuphinda kusetyenziswe iibhetri: ukusetyenziswa kwebhetri ngokucothayo + ukuvuselelwa kwezinto ezivuthiweyo, kunyusa ixabiso lebhetri eliseleyo nge-15% -20%, kunciphisa ngakumbi i-TCO.
Ixesha leposi: Meyi-28-2026
